ALTERNATIVE 007


Casino Royale's Poker Game Analysis



Anyone that has seen Casino Royale remembers the big poker game.  Thomas Sanbrook was brought in for this movie to try and make it look more realistic.  While the high stakes Texas Hold'em poker game looked professional, anyone that knows poker knows that the final hand was anything but.  Let's take a look why.
Here are the hands of each player at the start of the final hand.

Seat 1 - Asian Gentleman - Ks-Qs
Seat 2 - African American Gentleman - 8h-8c
Seat 3 - Le Chiffre - Ac-6h
Seat 4 - James Bond - 5s-7s

When we reach the turn, the board shows Ah-8s-6s-4s and the pot is at $24 Million.  While we didn't see the action pre-flop, we can probably get a decent idea of how the action went down.  From the way the chips are setting on the board on the turn, all four players limped in pre-flop without a raise. 
On the flop, one would assume that the African American player bet out six Million to chase out those drawing.  The character played by Mads Mikkelsen clearly knows how to play poker and just called here with top and bottom pair.  Bond making a call here is mathematically incorrect as he does not have the proper pot odds, but considering he has huge odds of taking his opponents entire stacks if he hits, he has the proper implied odds to call.  At this point, the Asian gentleman should have folded.
On the turn, Bond has the stone cold nuts and obviously is going to slow play the hand.  The Asian player decides to check as well which is clearly a mistake considering that only an ace-high flush beats him.  He should have bet somewhere around 30 to 40 percent of the pot to represent his flush.
With a flush now complete on the board, African gentleman has no choice but to check.  The only downside is that everyone now knows he does not have the flush.  Le Chiffe is not going to risk a check-raise situation and is happy to see a river.
The river could not have fell more fortuitous for Bond as it basically completes a better hand all of his opponents.  Again, Bond is going to let someone else bet and the Asian gentleman shoves for $6 Million with his nut flush.  The African American gentleman puts in his last $4 Million with his eights-full.  He had no choice here as he was clearly pot committed.
Le Chiffe makes a min-raise to $12 Million which is a suspicious bet in this spot.  It almost is asking for a call.  Normally, you would assume someone her has something like A-8,the A-6 like Le Chiffe has, or some pocket pair to make a full house. 
Unfortunately for Le Chiffe, Bond has the nuts and moves all-in.  Le Chiffe makes the call and we all know what happens from here.  Bond takes down the pot after everyone essentially slow rolls the table thinking they won. 
While Casino Royale was clearly a  film with a lot of drama, the reality is that the climatic poker scene was seriously lacking in realism.  Granted, many of us watching the film didn't really care about realism as all we wanted to see Bond win the day, and he did.




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